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Thursday 19 January 2017

Are we on a sustainable path?



It is possible.

There is no destined pathway that we are on. It is only when we look back we see the pathway we have taken so far:-


2016 Is likeliest the hottest year since instrumental records began and the largest break up of an ice shelf in the Antarctica has reached a high enough possibility of occurring this year that scientists working on the Brunt ice shelf are to be removed for their safety.
Last year also saw the greenhouse gas CO2 crossing 400ppm (largely due to the burning of fossil fuels) and this is the trend that is largely the cause of our present day warming trend.


This warming trend is also implicated in the mass bleaching and damage to coral reefs threatening much of our global food supply. By 2015 an El Nino event in the south pacific was clearly underway and it had been realized that the expected warming from this natural event would be superimposed on the warming trend we have seen over the past century. With this knowledge it was predicted that further extensive mass bleaching through 2015 and 2016 would occur. Sadly the expected outcome did in fact materialize.


These are just some of the many indicators that show the trend we are on in a warming world. Climate change is but one of the many ways we are trespassing some of the Planetary Boundaries that in turn threatens sustainability. A large and growing population with increasing consumption and an increasing energy demand that is coupled to carbon emissions is largely responsible for this.


However “Are we on a sustainable path?” is not a question that can be answered easily. If we extrapolate linearly some of the underlying causes in these trends; for example the trend in world population or the carbon dioxide emissions over the last century, then it would appear the likelihood of a neo-Malthusian catastrophe seems inevitable.


However if we are going to extrapolate we need not do so linearly (or exponentially). Extrapolation is difficult and we could put more emphasis on some of the changes to these trends we presently see occurring globally.


Here are important trends showing we're not on a linear path and choices we have to promote things we can do to accelerate those more sustainable trends:-


1. A demographic transition that is taking place which indicates that world population may stabilize through improved health, education for all, improved wealth etc . This demographic transition is indicated by, first, declining death rates, followed by declining birth rates.This transition is happening at a faster and faster rate in developing worlds. Of course, the fact that death rates decline first means people are living longer. Most countries have either passed this transition or are in the middle of this transition. The expected life span of most has now mainly stabilized but there are more young people living today with longer life spans than we have had previously. This is the main reason for world population growth today. (See "Dont Panic" by Hans Rosling)
However if the transition occurs at a faster rate as seems plausible with improved communications and well stated sustainable development goals, then our ultimate and possible stabilized population will be lower than would otherwise be.


2. Technologies are improving such that we can obtain our energy without carbon emissions and it is feasible (but not necessary) that this will occur first in the developed world. (See environmental Kuznets curve theory).


3. Political change. Worldwide CO2 emissions are still growing but with appropriate action to account for the social cost of emissions the speed at which technological changes can occur may also speed up, similar to what we are now seeing in demographic transitions.


The political changes to spur this must come from an educated public that will encourage policies such as a carbon tax or a cap and trade system. These are some of the steps required to achieve the aims given to our governments that was made clear in the Paris agreement of 2015.


4.Social changes. Ultimately the developed countries will have to not only cut their
carbon emissions but also at least stabilize their total energy demand to achieve a realistic chance of a sustainable path. It is to be hoped that the least developed and the developing countries will quickly converge to a poverty free sustainable level. The sooner these things happen the easier the solution.

Both pessimism and optimism on their own can lead to complacency. We must look to the possibilities and to the choices we make. It is possible that we will follow a path leading to
sustainability but that will depend on which choices we make both in our personal lives and the political pathways taken.

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